Developing the California Validated Risk Assessment Tool

Principal Investigator: Susan Turner, Ph.D., University of California, Irvine

This project has developed the California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA) – a risk prediction tool which estimates individual parolee risk to re-offend using existing data collected by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR), and automated offender “rap sheets” provided to CDCR by the California Department of Justice. The tool will be used by CDCR in a parole violation matrix to guide supervision and treatment decisions, or in other structured decision-making tools for parolees.

CDCR provided UCI with a database of approximately 103,000 parolees who were released onto parole in FY 2002/2003. This data contains arrest and disposition information for parolee arrests (prior to and subsequent to release in FY 2002-2003), demographic information, and other risk factors collected by CDCR for each parolee, and examines recidivism over a three year follow-up period.

UCI, in developing the study, replicated a risk assessment tool developed by Washington State using static factors related to recidivism.

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